MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-08-02.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B— | $7.8B+19.5% | $12.1B+56.3% | $15.9B+31.0% | $14.3B-9.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.14— | $6.14-14.0% | $5.08-17.3% | $9.77+92.3% | $8.74-10.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $841M— | $1.7B+98.5% | $1.9B+16.8% | -$1.2B-163.2% | $5.5Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 100.9% | 87.1%-13.8pp | 55.7%-31.4pp | 52.2%-3.5pp | 56.5%+4.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 31.0% | 22.8%-8.2pp | 12.1%-10.7pp | 16.8%+4.7pp | 16.3%-0.4pp |
| Net Margin | 23.8% | 17.2%-6.6pp | 9.1%-8.1pp | 12.8%+3.7pp | 12.1%-0.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $181 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $184 (last mo, 4) (+1.2%).
Buy-rated share 20% → 13% over ~3 months (-7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.71 | $2.97 | +9.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.32 | $2.71 | +16.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.37 | $2.69 | +13.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.26 | $2.29 | +1.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.06 | $2.13 | +3.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.85 | $1.90 | +2.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.96 | $2.26 | +15.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.74 | $2.01 | +15.5% |
Net insider -$5.4M over 180 days (2 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 6.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.5B) · equity value $34.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 55 for Northern Trust Corporation indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 60 diverging from the long-term score of 50. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 12-month return of 48.8% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. In contrast, the value category scores lower due to a P/E of 16.2 and P/B of 2.6, while growth scores are mixed, with strong free cash flow growth of 543.3% offset by negative revenue and EPS growth.