MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (40) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-26.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B— | $2.3B+12.1% | $2.4B+4.8% | $2.6B+7.3% | $3.2B+23.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.62— | $2.90+79.0% | $3.02+4.1% | $3.42+13.2% | $2.24-34.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$29M— | $57Mn/m | $127M+123.4% | $129M+1.9% | $105M-18.5% |
| Gross Margin | 15.1% | 16.9%+1.9pp | 21.9%+4.9pp | 25.0%+3.1pp | 23.0%-2.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.8% | 6.5%+0.7pp | 10.0%+3.5pp | 11.0%+1.0pp | 11.0%+0.0pp |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 6.7%+2.5pp | 6.7%+0.0pp | 7.1%+0.4pp | 3.8%-3.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $341 avg across 9 analysts.
Buy-rated share 100% → 100% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.30 | $1.53 | +17.7% |
| May 2026 | $1.51 | $1.71 | +13.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.99 | $1.19 | +20.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.97 | $1.06 | +9.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.93 | $1.06 | +14.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.95 | $1.12 | +17.3% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.79 | $0.92 | +16.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.92 | $0.97 | +5.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$34.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 35 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 26.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $121M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $105M) · equity value $10.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 40 indicates MOD trades at a premium, with a high P/E of 75.9 and P/B of 9.1, scoring relatively low on value. The stock scores high on growth, driven by 23.1% revenue growth, but exhibits weak profitability, with an ROE of 12.6%. Momentum is mixed, with a strong 12-month return of 42.4% but a recent 3-month decline of 27.5%, and the risk score is low due to high volatility and beta.