MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$4.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 23 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $627 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 88% → 93% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $4.41 | $4.60 | +4.3% |
| Jan 2026 | $4.24 | $4.76 | +12.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $4.32 | $4.38 | +1.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $4.03 | $4.15 | +3.0% |
| May 2025 | $3.58 | $3.73 | +4.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.71 | $3.82 | +3.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.74 | $3.89 | +4.0% |
| Jul 2024 | $3.51 | $3.59 | +2.3% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.9B— | $22.2B+17.8% | $25.1B+12.9% | $28.2B+12.2% | $32.8B+16.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.76— | $10.23+16.8% | $11.83+15.6% | $13.89+17.4% | $16.52+18.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.6B— | $10.1B+16.8% | $11.6B+15.0% | $14.3B+23.2% | $16.9B+18.2% |
| Gross Margin | 76.2% | 76.3%+0.1pp | 76.0%-0.3pp | 76.3%+0.3pp | 83.4%+7.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 53.4% | 55.2%+1.8pp | 55.8%+0.7pp | 55.3%-0.5pp | 59.2%+3.8pp |
| Net Margin | 46.0% | 44.7%-1.3pp | 44.6%-0.1pp | 45.7%+1.1pp | 45.6%-0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 52 for Mastercard indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability scores, with an ROE near 206%, but offset by low value scores due to a P/E of 28.8 and high P/B of 66.1. The stock's growth prospects, with revenue growth of 16.4% and EPS growth of 18.9%, also support its score. However, momentum is a concern, with a 12-month return of -9.2% and a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting no significant divergence in outlook.