MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$65.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 51 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.9B— | $22.2B+17.8% | $25.1B+12.9% | $28.2B+12.2% | $32.8B+16.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.76— | $10.23+16.8% | $11.83+15.6% | $13.89+17.4% | $16.52+18.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.6B— | $10.8B+24.3% | $11.6B+8.0% | $14.3B+23.2% | $16.4B+14.9% |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | 100.0%0.0pp | 100.0%0.0pp | 100.0%0.0pp | 100.0%0.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 53.4% | 57.2%+3.8pp | 58.3%+1.1pp | 58.0%-0.3pp | 57.6%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 46.0% | 44.7%-1.3pp | 44.6%-0.1pp | 45.7%+1.1pp | 45.6%-0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $683 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $698 (last mo, 6) (+2.2%).
Buy-rated share 93% → 88% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $5.17 | $5.31 | +2.7% |
| Jul 2026 | $4.77 | $5.04 | +5.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $4.41 | $4.60 | +4.3% |
| Jan 2026 | $4.24 | $4.76 | +12.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $4.32 | $4.38 | +1.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $4.03 | $4.15 | +3.0% |
| May 2025 | $3.58 | $3.73 | +4.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.71 | $3.82 | +3.0% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 11.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $14.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $16.4B) · equity value $559.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 57 for Mastercard indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 63 diverging from the long-term score of 52 by 11 points. Mastercard scores high on profitability, driven by its exceptionally high ROE of 252.9% and strong operating margin of 58.8%. The stock also exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 15.0% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 33.3 and P/B of 82.7, contributing to its low value score.