MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$29.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $289 (last qtr, 5 analysts) → $288 (last mo, 3) (-0.5%).
Buy-rated share 92% → 91% over ~3 months (-0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $3.11 | $3.02 | -2.9% |
| May 2026 | $4.25 | $-16.65 | -491.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $3.80 | $10.71 | +181.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.91 | $4.75 | +63.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.49 | $7.30 | +193.2% |
| May 2025 | $2.81 | $1.57 | -44.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.69 | $4.33 | +61.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.84 | $3.93 | +113.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.6B— | $33.8B+91.4% | $20.3B-39.9% | $15.8B-22.2% | $19.6B+24.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-9.25— | $5.64n/m | $40.73+622.2% | $14.20-65.1% | $24.13+69.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $8.7B+478.4% | $6.3B-27.6% | $3.2B-49.9% | $2.5B-22.0% |
| Gross Margin | 31.9% | 34.2%+2.3pp | 40.0%+5.9pp | 33.5%-6.5pp | 29.0%-4.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 30.0% | 32.9%+2.9pp | 37.7%+4.8pp | 30.7%-6.9pp | 27.0%-3.7pp |
| Net Margin | -13.3% | 4.2%+17.5pp | 48.7%+44.5pp | 20.6%-28.1pp | 27.1%+6.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 3.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $4.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.5B) · equity value $56.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 49 for Cheniere Energy indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of strengths and weaknesses across factor categories. The stock scores high on profitability, with a notable ROE of 47.4%, and exhibits strong momentum, having returned 16.7% over the past year. However, it trades at a premium, as reflected in its value score, and growth is somewhat inconsistent, with revenue growth outpacing free cash flow growth. The lack of divergence between long-term and short-term scores suggests a consistent outlook across time horizons.