MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$5.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $298 (last qtr, 20 analysts) → $313 (last mo, 11) (+5.0%).
Buy-rated share 54% → 58% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.74 | $1.91 | +9.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.44 | $1.49 | +3.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.81 | $1.90 | +5.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.46 | $1.76 | +20.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.30 | $1.31 | +0.8% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.15 | $1.17 | +1.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.64 | $1.53 | -6.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.41 | $1.49 | +5.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B— | $14.8B+21.7% | $12.8B-13.4% | $12.1B-5.8% | $12.0B-0.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.14— | $9.21+29.0% | $6.97-24.3% | $5.56-20.2% | $6.12+10.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $276M— | $236M-14.6% | -$118M-149.9% | $618Mn/m | $948M+53.4% |
| Gross Margin | 15.4% | 16.7%+1.3pp | 17.2%+0.5pp | 17.1%-0.2pp | 13.3%-3.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.6% | 9.0%+0.4pp | 7.7%-1.2pp | 6.9%-0.9pp | 7.2%+0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | 6.5%+0.3pp | 5.7%-0.9pp | 4.7%-1.0pp | 5.0%+0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $483M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $948M) · equity value $26.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 56 for JBHT indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 60 being slightly more favorable than the long-term score of 53. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by its +96.9% return over the past year, and exhibits strong risk characteristics, with a beta of 1.3. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 39.9, and scores lower on value and profitability, with an ROE of 18.8% and operating margin of 7.5%.