MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $98 (last qtr, 1 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 89% → 82% over ~3 months (-7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.57 | $0.60 | +5.3% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +9.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.54 | $0.57 | +5.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.47 | $0.51 | +8.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.48 | $0.47 | -2.3% |
| Jan 2024 | $0.38 | $0.38 | -0.9% |
| Oct 2023 | $0.38 | $0.39 | +3.1% |
| Jul 2023 | $0.35 | $0.33 | -5.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B— | $4.2B+42.6% | $7.8B+85.8% | $9.3B+19.6% | $10.2B+9.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.81— | $0.94+15.7% | $1.42+51.2% | $1.73+22.0% | $2.22+28.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.8B— | $3.9B-33.0% | $4.5B+15.3% | $8.7B+93.0% | $15.7B+81.5% |
| Gross Margin | 78.4% | 81.4%+3.0pp | 88.3%+6.8pp | 89.0%+0.8pp | 89.8%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 68.6% | 74.6%+6.0pp | 83.8%+9.2pp | 84.2%+0.4pp | 86.0%+1.8pp |
| Net Margin | 10.5% | 9.1%-1.4pp | 7.7%-1.4pp | 8.1%+0.4pp | 9.6%+1.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$32.7M over 180 days (5 open-market buys, 9 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 54 for IBKR suggests a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 60 diverging from the long-term score of 48. IBKR scores high on momentum and profitability, driven by its strong 12-month return of 71.9% and high operating margin of 86.8%. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 38.4, which weighs down its value score. The growth category also exhibits strong numbers, including 27.4% EPS growth and 81.5% FCF growth.