MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B— | $5.7B+13.9% | $6.6B+17.3% | $7.4B+11.9% | $8.3B+11.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.59— | $1.11+88.1% | $1.83+64.9% | $2.81+53.6% | $3.71+32.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $250M— | $540M+116.0% | $682M+26.3% | $977M+43.3% | $1.4B+46.5% |
| Gross Margin | 22.8% | 23.9%+1.1pp | 24.3%+0.4pp | 27.6%+3.3pp | 30.7%+3.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.4% | 18.3%+0.8pp | 18.8%+0.5pp | 22.5%+3.8pp | 25.8%+3.3pp |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 8.3%+3.1pp | 11.5%+3.2pp | 15.5%+4.0pp | 18.3%+2.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $338 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $343 (last mo, 4) (+1.3%).
Buy-rated share 87% → 86% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.24 | $1.33 | +7.3% |
| May 2026 | $1.11 | $1.22 | +9.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.96 | $1.05 | +8.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.91 | $0.95 | +4.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.87 | $0.91 | +4.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.78 | $0.86 | +10.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.71 | $0.74 | +4.2% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.66 | $0.71 | +7.6% |
Net insider -$22.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 10.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.4B) · equity value $111.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for Howmet Aerospace indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and profitability scores, which are offset by a low value score due to the stock's premium valuation, including a P/E of 59.8. The company exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 54.6%, and scores high on profitability, with an ROE of 34.4%. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some near-term optimism. Overall, the stock trades at a premium, which weighs on its overall QScore.