MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (37) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B— | $1.4B-25.2% | $1.9B+37.3% | $3.0B+58.2% | $4.5B+51.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-4.27— | $-1.17n/m | $-0.61n/m | $1.56n/m | $2.05+31.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$968M— | -$909Mn/m | $1.2Bn/m | -$207M-117.8% | $1.6Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 72.0% | 56.7%-15.3pp | 92.2%+35.5pp | 79.4%-12.7pp | 83.3%+3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | -90.4% | -71.1%+19.3pp | -28.7%+42.4pp | 35.7%+64.5pp | 46.8%+11.1pp |
| Net Margin | -203.1% | -75.7%+127.4pp | -29.0%+46.7pp | 47.8%+76.8pp | 42.1%-5.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 14.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $846M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.6B) · equity value $65.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $138 (last qtr, 34 analysts) → $133 (last mo, 16) (-3.5%).
Buy-rated share 76% → 79% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.56 | $0.60 | +7.5% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.43 | $0.62 | +44.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.39 | $0.38 | -1.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.63 | $0.66 | +4.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.54 | $0.61 | +13.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.31 | $0.42 | +36.9% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.33 | $0.37 | +13.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.42 | $1.01 | +141.4% |
Net insider -$127.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 51 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 37 for HOOD suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between strong growth prospects and concerns around valuation and risk. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue growth of 51.6% and EPS growth of 32.5%, but trades at a premium with a P/E of 37.6. In contrast, its value score is low due to elevated price multiples, and its risk score is also low due to high volatility and a beta of 2.4, while its short-term momentum is weak with a 12-month return of -43.0%.