MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (60) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.4B— | $35.5B+3.1% | $33.0B-6.9% | $34.7B+5.2% | $37.4B+7.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $15.82— | $14.54-8.1% | $16.94+16.5% | $17.42+2.8% | $14.72-15.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.1B— | $4.5B-12.3% | $4.6B+2.0% | $5.2B+13.6% | $5.4B+3.2% |
| Gross Margin | 35.9% | 37.0%+1.1pp | 37.5%+0.5pp | 38.5%+1.0pp | 36.9%-1.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 18.0% | 18.1%+0.1pp | 18.5%+0.4pp | 19.2%+0.7pp | 17.5%-1.7pp |
| Net Margin | 16.1% | 14.0%-2.1pp | 17.1%+3.1pp | 16.4%-0.7pp | 12.6%-3.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $257 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $256 (last mo, 5) (-0.4%).
Buy-rated share 56% → 63% over ~3 months (+7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.80 | $1.95 | +8.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.43 | $2.58 | +6.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $5.08 | $5.18 | +2.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.56 | $2.82 | +10.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $5.32 | $4.92 | -7.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $4.42 | $5.02 | +13.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $5.56 | $3.96 | -28.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $5.00 | $5.16 | +3.2% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$473K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 5.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $5.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.4B) · equity value $74.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
HON's QScore of 60 indicates a relatively neutral outlook, driven by strong scores in Value and Profitability, which suggest the stock trades at a reasonable valuation with robust return on equity near 42%. However, the Growth category score is lower due to a decline in EPS growth. The stock exhibits moderate momentum, with a 12-month return of 8.7%, and its Risk score is elevated due to relatively low volatility and a beta below 1. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, with only a 2-point difference.