MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider $529K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $379 avg across 5 analysts.
Buy-rated share 63% → 64% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.33 | $1.66 | +24.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.28 | $1.35 | +5.5% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.22 | $1.33 | +9.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.13 | $1.26 | +11.5% |
| May 2025 | $1.03 | $1.12 | +8.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.94 | $1.20 | +27.8% |
| Dec 2024 | $0.99 | $0.99 | +0.0% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.92 | $0.97 | +5.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B— | $2.2B+18.4% | $3.0B+34.4% | $3.9B+30.0% | $4.5B+16.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.21— | $2.55+15.4% | $2.91+14.1% | $3.67+26.1% | $4.90+33.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $408M— | $436M+6.9% | $399M-8.4% | $614M+53.8% | $861M+40.3% |
| Gross Margin | 42.7% | 42.5%-0.2pp | 42.1%-0.4pp | 41.8%-0.3pp | 39.8%-2.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 21.2% | 22.1%+0.9pp | 21.8%-0.3pp | 21.6%-0.2pp | 22.7%+1.1pp |
| Net Margin | 16.3% | 15.9%-0.4pp | 13.6%-2.3pp | 13.3%-0.3pp | 15.4%+2.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 11.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $625M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $861M) · equity value $51.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 57 for HEI suggests a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores of 61 and 62, respectively. The stock's high revenue and earnings growth rates, as well as its +25.6% return over the past three months, contribute to its positive assessment. However, its value score is dragged down by a P/E of 64.7 and other premium multiples, indicating that the stock trades at a significant premium. The short-term score of 61 is notably higher than the long-term score of 53, reflecting the stock's recent strong momentum.