MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $1259 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $1208 (last mo, 2) (-4.0%).
Buy-rated share 19% → 22% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $10.21 | $11.65 | +14.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $9.46 | $9.44 | -0.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $9.98 | $10.21 | +2.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $10.07 | $9.97 | -1.0% |
| May 2025 | $9.48 | $9.86 | +4.0% |
| Jan 2025 | $9.74 | $9.71 | -0.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $9.97 | $9.87 | -1.0% |
| Aug 2024 | $9.58 | $9.76 | +1.9% |
Net insider -$4.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 27 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.0B— | $15.2B+16.9% | $16.5B+8.2% | $17.2B+4.2% | $17.9B+4.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $19.98— | $30.27+51.5% | $36.51+20.6% | $38.71+6.0% | $35.40-8.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $682M— | $1.1B+57.9% | $1.6B+47.3% | $1.6B-1.0% | $1.3B-15.2% |
| Gross Margin | 36.2% | 38.4%+2.2pp | 39.4%+1.0pp | 39.0%-0.5pp | 39.1%+0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.9% | 14.5%+2.7pp | 15.6%+1.0pp | 15.4%-0.2pp | 15.0%-0.4pp |
| Net Margin | 8.0% | 10.2%+2.1pp | 11.1%+0.9pp | 11.1%+0.0pp | 9.5%-1.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 59 for GWW indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 61, reflecting its +32% return over the past year and ROE near 48%. However, the stock's value score is dragged down by a P/E of 36.3 and P/B of 16.3, indicating it trades at a premium. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting recent performance is a key factor in the overall QScore, with the stock exhibiting strong price momentum and a bullish trend.