MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $284 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $272 (last mo, 4) (-4.4%).
Buy-rated share 16% → 17% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $4.35 | $4.52 | +3.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $4.45 | $4.53 | +1.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.38 | $4.46 | +1.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.36 | $4.51 | +3.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $4.13 | $4.05 | -1.9% |
| Jun 2025 | $4.30 | $4.27 | -0.7% |
| Mar 2025 | $4.17 | $4.28 | +2.6% |
| Dec 2024 | $4.25 | $4.37 | +2.8% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B— | $2.1B+13.1% | $2.2B+5.6% | $2.3B+5.4% | $2.5B+6.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $10.25— | $12.04+17.5% | $13.91+15.5% | $15.55+11.8% | $14.57-6.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $487M— | $585M+20.0% | $615M+5.1% | $617M+0.5% | $707M+14.6% |
| Gross Margin | 52.8% | 53.3%+0.6pp | 54.1%+0.7pp | 52.7%-1.3pp | 50.6%-2.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 25.8% | 30.2%+4.4pp | 31.8%+1.6pp | 32.2%+0.4pp | 28.3%-4.0pp |
| Net Margin | 21.5% | 22.4%+0.9pp | 24.4%+1.9pp | 25.7%+1.3pp | 21.5%-4.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 5.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $647M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $707M) · equity value $11.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 54 for FDS indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 60 diverging from the long-term score of 49 by 11 points. FDS scores high on momentum, driven by a 23.5% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 22.6, and exhibits weak EPS growth of -7.1%, weighing on its overall score. The company's strong profitability, with an ROE of 25.6%, is a positive factor.