MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.0B— | $7.0B+16.1% | $7.3B+5.2% | $7.5B+2.7% | $8.2B+8.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.80— | $0.94+17.5% | $1.01+7.4% | $1.00-1.0% | $1.09+9.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $614M— | $767M+25.1% | $1.3B+64.2% | $947M-24.9% | $1.1B+11.0% |
| Gross Margin | 46.2% | 46.1%-0.1pp | 45.7%-0.4pp | 45.1%-0.6pp | 45.0%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.3% | 20.8%+0.6pp | 20.8%-0.0pp | 20.0%-0.8pp | 20.2%+0.2pp |
| Net Margin | 15.4% | 15.6%+0.2pp | 15.7%+0.2pp | 15.2%-0.5pp | 15.3%+0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $49 avg across 8 analysts.
Buy-rated share 29% → 33% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.33 | $0.33 | +0.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.30 | $0.30 | +0.4% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.30 | $0.29 | -2.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +2.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.0% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.48 | $0.23 | -52.1% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.51 | $0.26 | -49.3% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$3.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 9.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.1B) · equity value $59.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for Fastenal Company suggests a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score of 61 being slightly higher than the long-term score of 56. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 6.7% and a 3-month return of 18.1%, as well as on profitability, with an ROE of 34.0% and an operating margin of 20.3%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 43.9 and a P/B of 14.6, which weighs on its value score.