MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.7B— | $9.6B+41.8% | $8.3B-12.8% | $11.0B+32.2% | $15.0B+36.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $12.30— | $24.61+100.1% | $17.34-29.5% | $15.53-10.4% | $5.73-63.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B— | $2.7B+62.4% | $1.2B-55.5% | -$5.4B-545.6% | $5.2Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 63.3% | 70.1%+6.8pp | 57.5%-12.5pp | 45.1%-12.4pp | 35.2%-9.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 59.3% | 68.0%+8.7pp | 54.8%-13.2pp | 39.9%-14.9pp | 32.7%-7.2pp |
| Net Margin | 32.3% | 45.8%+13.5pp | 37.7%-8.2pp | 30.3%-7.4pp | 11.1%-19.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $229 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $230 (last mo, 8) (+0.5%).
Buy-rated share 84% → 86% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $6.08 | $6.48 | +6.6% |
| May 2026 | $3.74 | $4.23 | +13.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.00 | $1.74 | -13.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.94 | $3.08 | +4.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.76 | $2.67 | -3.3% |
| May 2025 | $4.18 | $4.54 | +8.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $3.57 | $3.64 | +2.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $3.98 | $3.38 | -15.1% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -2.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $356M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.2B) · equity value $55.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$4.4B over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 68 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 48 for Diamondback Energy indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score slightly outpacing its long-term score. The company scores high on growth, driven by significant revenue and free cash flow growth, but is held back by its value category, which is impacted by a P/E of 38.7 and EV/EBITDA of 9.5, indicating a premium valuation. Momentum is also a positive factor, with a 12-month return of 42.9%, while profitability and risk metrics are more mixed, with low returns on equity and assets.