MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$384.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 39 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $215 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $214 (last mo, 4) (-0.7%).
Buy-rated share 72% → 80% over ~3 months (+8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $5.55 | $6.06 | +9.2% |
| May 2026 | $1.00 | $1.41 | +41.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.41 | $1.52 | +7.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.69 | $1.85 | +9.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.73 | $1.77 | +2.3% |
| May 2025 | $2.16 | $2.18 | +0.9% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.42 | $2.06 | -14.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.42 | $2.51 | +3.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155.6B— | $235.7B+51.5% | $196.9B-16.5% | $193.4B-1.8% | $184.4B-4.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $8.14— | $18.28+124.6% | $11.36-37.9% | $9.72-14.4% | $6.63-31.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $21.1B— | $37.6B+78.4% | $19.8B-47.4% | $15.0B-23.9% | $16.6B+10.3% |
| Gross Margin | 29.2% | 27.8%-1.4pp | 30.7%+2.8pp | 29.4%-1.2pp | 30.4%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 10.3% | 16.9%+6.6pp | 17.2%+0.2pp | 15.0%-2.1pp | 9.0%-6.0pp |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0%+5.0pp | 10.9%-4.2pp | 9.1%-1.7pp | 6.7%-2.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -0.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $17.1B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $16.6B) · equity value $392.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 51 for Chevron Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock scoring high on value and momentum, but lower on growth and profitability. The value category is supported by a P/E of 18.8 and EV/EBITDA of 7.6, indicating the stock trades at a reasonable multiple. In contrast, growth scores are dragged down by negative revenue and EPS growth, while momentum exhibits strong performance with a 27.8% return over the past year. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference.