MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $227.0B— | $242.3B+6.8% | $254.5B+5.0% | $275.2B+8.2% | $303.2B+10.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $13.14— | $14.16+7.8% | $16.56+16.9% | $18.21+10.0% | $20.76+14.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.5B— | $6.7B+92.7% | $6.6B-1.7% | $7.8B+18.2% | $9.4B+19.8% |
| Gross Margin | 12.1% | 12.3%+0.1pp | 12.6%+0.4pp | 12.8%+0.2pp | 12.8%-0.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.4% | 3.3%-0.1pp | 3.6%+0.3pp | 3.8%+0.1pp | 3.9%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 2.6% | 2.6%+0.0pp | 2.9%+0.3pp | 2.9%+0.0pp | 3.0%+0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $8.0B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $9.4B) · equity value $452.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$4.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $1105 avg across 10 analysts.
Buy-rated share 59% → 63% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $6.54 | $6.75 | +3.2% |
| May 2026 | $5.00 | $4.93 | -1.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.55 | $4.58 | +0.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.27 | $4.50 | +5.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $5.80 | $5.87 | +1.2% |
| May 2025 | $4.24 | $4.28 | +0.9% |
| Mar 2025 | $4.09 | $4.02 | -1.7% |
| Dec 2024 | $3.79 | $4.04 | +6.6% |
The QScore of 54 for Costco Wholesale Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth near 10% and 14%, respectively, but trades at a premium, with a P/E of 49.1, which weighs on its value score. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some recent momentum, with a 12-month return of 10.9%, although this is somewhat offset by a bearish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover.