MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$6.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $1120 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $1056 (last mo, 2) (-5.8%).
Buy-rated share 61% → 59% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $4.94 | $4.93 | -0.2% |
| Mar 2026 | $4.55 | $4.58 | +0.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.27 | $4.34 | +1.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $5.80 | $5.87 | +1.2% |
| May 2025 | $4.24 | $4.28 | +0.9% |
| Mar 2025 | $4.09 | $4.02 | -1.7% |
| Dec 2024 | $3.79 | $3.82 | +0.8% |
| Sep 2024 | $5.08 | $5.15 | +1.4% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $195.9B— | $227.0B+15.8% | $242.3B+6.8% | $254.5B+5.0% | $275.2B+8.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $11.27— | $13.14+16.6% | $14.16+7.8% | $16.56+16.9% | $18.21+10.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.4B— | $3.5B-34.8% | $6.7B+92.7% | $6.6B-1.7% | $7.8B+18.2% |
| Gross Margin | 12.9% | 12.1%-0.7pp | 12.3%+0.1pp | 12.6%+0.4pp | 12.8%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.4% | 3.4%+0.0pp | 3.3%-0.1pp | 3.6%+0.3pp | 3.8%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 2.6% | 2.6%+0.0pp | 2.6%+0.0pp | 2.9%+0.3pp | 2.9%+0.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 49 for Costco Wholesale Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth near 10%, but is held back by its value score, which is negatively impacted by a P/E of 47.8 and P/B of 12.6, indicating a premium valuation. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, but the divergence is not significant, and the stock exhibits strong growth and low risk characteristics, with a beta of 0.9 and ROE near 28%.