MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net insider -$3.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $160 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $160 (last mo, 5) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 73% → 63% over ~3 months (-10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $2.90 | $3.24 | +11.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.72 | $1.89 | +9.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.07 | $1.02 | -4.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.41 | $1.61 | +14.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.35 | $1.42 | +5.2% |
| May 2025 | $2.05 | $2.09 | +2.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.78 | $1.98 | +11.2% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.64 | $1.78 | +8.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.8B— | $78.5B+71.3% | $56.1B-28.5% | $54.7B-2.5% | $58.9B+7.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.08— | $14.57+139.6% | $9.06-37.8% | $7.81-13.8% | $6.35-18.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.7B— | $18.2B+55.5% | $8.7B-52.0% | $8.0B-8.2% | $7.2B-9.5% |
| Gross Margin | 32.2% | 38.2%+6.0pp | 32.4%-5.8pp | 29.9%-2.5pp | 25.1%-4.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 26.3% | 32.4%+6.1pp | 26.8%-5.7pp | 23.4%-3.4pp | 19.2%-4.1pp |
| Net Margin | 17.6% | 23.8%+6.2pp | 19.5%-4.3pp | 16.9%-2.6pp | 13.6%-3.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 0.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $8.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $7.2B) · equity value $183.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 51 for ConocoPhillips indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on momentum, exhibiting strong momentum with a 12-month return of 73.6% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, it scores lower on growth and profitability, with negative EPS growth and moderate return on equity of 14.3%. The long-term and short-term scores diverge slightly, with the short-term score being 8 points higher, suggesting some near-term strength.