MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $760 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $716 (last mo, 3) (-5.8%).
Buy-rated share 64% → 65% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $7.21 | $6.73 | -6.7% |
| May 2026 | $5.63 | $6.15 | +9.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $5.10 | $5.81 | +13.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $4.83 | $5.59 | +15.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $5.23 | $6.43 | +22.9% |
| May 2025 | $4.91 | $5.96 | +21.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $4.70 | $5.16 | +9.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $4.80 | $5.86 | +22.1% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$10.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 22 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.0B— | $28.1B+16.9% | $34.1B+21.3% | $34.1B+0.1% | $33.7B-1.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.61— | $15.12+3.5% | $5.15-65.9% | $28.37+450.9% | $20.50-27.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $1.0B-28.8% | $2.8B+163.2% | $279M-89.9% | $2.4B+755.2% |
| Gross Margin | 23.7% | 23.9%+0.2pp | 24.2%+0.3pp | 24.7%+0.5pp | 25.3%+0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.3% | 10.4%-0.8pp | 5.2%-5.3pp | 11.0%+5.8pp | 12.0%+1.0pp |
| Net Margin | 8.9% | 7.7%-1.2pp | 2.2%-5.5pp | 11.6%+9.4pp | 8.4%-3.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.8B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.4B) · equity value $68.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for Cummins Inc indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and risk profiles scoring relatively high, while its momentum and profitability scores are more subdued. The value score of 57 is driven by a P/E of 25.4 and EV/EBITDA of 14.8, suggesting the stock trades at a moderate premium. In contrast, the momentum score of 40 is weighed down by a recent 3-month decline of 22.9% and a bearish moving average trend, while the profitability score of 46 reflects an ROE near 22% and operating margin of 11.1%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference.