MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $784 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $831 (last mo, 3) (+6.0%).
Buy-rated share 50% → 58% over ~3 months (+8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $5.63 | $6.15 | +9.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $5.10 | $5.81 | +13.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $4.83 | $5.59 | +15.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $5.23 | $6.43 | +22.9% |
| May 2025 | $4.91 | $5.96 | +21.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $4.70 | $5.16 | +9.8% |
| Nov 2024 | $4.80 | $5.86 | +22.1% |
| Aug 2024 | $4.81 | $5.26 | +9.4% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.0B— | $28.1B+16.9% | $34.1B+21.3% | $34.1B+0.1% | $33.7B-1.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.61— | $15.12+3.5% | $5.15-65.9% | $28.37+450.9% | $20.50-27.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $1.0B-28.8% | $2.8B+163.2% | $279M-89.9% | $2.4B+755.2% |
| Gross Margin | 23.7% | 23.9%+0.2pp | 24.2%+0.3pp | 24.7%+0.5pp | 25.3%+0.5pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.3% | 10.4%-0.8pp | 5.2%-5.3pp | 11.0%+5.8pp | 11.5%+0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 8.9% | 7.7%-1.2pp | 2.2%-5.5pp | 11.6%+9.4pp | 8.4%-3.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$16.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 35 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 56 for Cummins Inc. suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score slightly outpacing its long-term score. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 115.2% return over the past year, but is held back by lower scores in value and profitability, due in part to a P/E of 35.4 and ROE of 22.0%. The growth category is also a mixed bag, with significant free cash flow growth offset by declines in revenue and EPS. Overall, the stock trades at a premium and exhibits strong momentum, but its profitability and value metrics are less compelling.