MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $51.0B— | $59.4B+16.6% | $67.1B+12.8% | $64.8B-3.4% | $67.6B+4.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $11.83— | $12.64+6.8% | $20.12+59.2% | $22.05+9.6% | $18.83-14.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.7B— | $5.2B+9.3% | $9.8B+89.5% | $8.8B-9.9% | $10.3B+16.5% |
| Gross Margin | 29.4% | 29.5%+0.0pp | 34.7%+5.2pp | 36.0%+1.3pp | 32.3%-3.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.5% | 13.3%-0.2pp | 19.3%+6.0pp | 20.2%+0.8pp | 16.6%-3.6pp |
| Net Margin | 12.7% | 11.3%-1.4pp | 15.4%+4.1pp | 16.7%+1.2pp | 13.1%-3.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $922 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $1028 (last mo, 2) (+11.5%).
Buy-rated share 52% → 52% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $4.65 | $5.54 | +19.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $4.71 | $5.16 | +9.6% |
| Oct 2025 | $4.53 | $4.95 | +9.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $4.89 | $4.72 | -3.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $4.35 | $4.25 | -2.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $5.06 | $5.14 | +1.6% |
| Oct 2024 | $5.34 | $5.17 | -3.2% |
| Aug 2024 | $5.54 | $5.99 | +8.1% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$89.2M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 26 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 50 for Caterpillar indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum and solid profitability, with scores of 76 and 58, respectively. However, the stock's high valuation, with a P/E of 49.4, weighs on its value score of 32. Notably, the short-term score of 56 diverges from the long-term score of 45, suggesting recent performance has been more favorable. Caterpillar exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 168.4%, but trades at a premium, which may be a concern for investors seeking value.