MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B— | $13.7B+13.2% | $16.1B+17.5% | $17.4B+8.2% | $18.5B+6.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.36— | $0.75n/m | $2.57+242.7% | $0.99-61.5% | $1.22+23.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $249M— | $330M+32.3% | $305M-7.5% | $299M-1.9% | $454M+51.9% |
| Gross Margin | 9.0% | 7.8%-1.2pp | 8.1%+0.3pp | 8.2%+0.1pp | 5.8%-2.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 1.6% | 3.0%+1.5pp | 3.9%+0.9pp | 4.1%+0.2pp | 4.3%+0.2pp |
| Net Margin | -0.8% | 1.4%+2.2pp | 4.2%+2.8pp | 1.5%-2.7pp | 1.8%+0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $67 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $69 (last mo, 9) (+3.5%).
Buy-rated share 88% → 88% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.48 | $0.52 | +7.3% |
| May 2026 | $0.47 | $0.49 | +3.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.50 | $0.51 | +2.0% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.64 | $0.64 | -0.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.40 | $0.40 | +0.0% |
| May 2025 | $0.33 | $0.34 | +3.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.48 | $0.51 | +6.3% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.53 | $0.54 | +2.9% |
Net insider -$974K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $353M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $454M) · equity value $16.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for Aramark indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 54.2% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The stock's value score is neutral, as it trades at a premium with a P/E of 41.8, while its growth score is also middling due to moderate revenue growth of 6.4%. Notably, the short-term score of 62 diverges from the long-term score of 54, suggesting recent performance has been more favorable.