MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (45) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $146 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $151 (last mo, 5) (+3.5%).
Buy-rated share 65% → 61% over ~3 months (-4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.28 | $1.29 | +0.8% |
| May 2026 | $1.33 | $1.24 | -6.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.69 | $1.45 | -14.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.15 | $1.19 | +3.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.08 | $1.03 | -4.6% |
| May 2025 | $0.94 | $1.09 | +16.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.35 | $1.23 | -8.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.94 | $0.95 | +1.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B— | $3.1B-27.5% | $3.6B+18.9% | $3.9B+7.0% | $6.5B+66.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.15— | $0.87-59.5% | $2.42+178.2% | $2.07-14.5% | $1.96-5.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.6B— | -$770Mn/m | -$300Mn/m | $2.7Bn/m | $3.2B+18.3% |
| Gross Margin | 72.4% | 51.0%-21.4pp | 59.1%+8.1pp | 55.4%-3.6pp | 74.8%+19.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.0% | 10.0%-9.0pp | 23.0%+12.9pp | 24.4%+1.4pp | 27.2%+2.9pp |
| Net Margin | 9.7% | 5.5%-4.2pp | 13.1%+7.6pp | 11.9%-1.1pp | 8.2%-3.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider $60K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 0 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 26.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.2B) · equity value $48.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 45 for Ares Management Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's high growth score offset by its low value score. The company scores high on growth, driven by its 66.6% revenue growth, but trades at a premium with a P/E of 63.9 and P/B of 8.3. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some recent momentum, with an 18.1% return over the past three months, but the stock's overall profitability and risk metrics are mediocre, with an ROE of 15.2% and beta of 1.5.