MEDIUM confidence: 95% data completeness, but the composite (39) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Not enough return history to estimate factor exposures — 4 of 36 months required. This stock is too recently listed (or has too short a price history) for a reliable Fama-French regression.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Buy-rated share 80% → 80% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.33 | $0.26 | -20.9% |
| May 2026 | $0.14 | $0.20 | +42.9% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.23 | $0.23 | +1.5% |
| Feb 2025 | — | $0.26 | — |
| Metric (USD) | FY2018 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.4B— | $7.1B-47.1% | $7.0B-1.7% | $6.4B-8.6% | $7.6B+20.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.22— | $0.16-86.9% | $0.11-31.3% | $0.26+132.7% | $0.37+44.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$254M— | $63Mn/m | $47M-25.3% | $95M+104.0% | $65M-31.6% |
| Gross Margin | 92.2% | 2.2%-89.9pp | 2.6%+0.3pp | 2.8%+0.3pp | 3.4%+0.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 19.6% | 1.3%-18.3pp | 1.3%-0.0pp | 1.4%+0.2pp | 1.3%-0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 4.6% | 0.8%-3.8pp | 0.6%-0.2pp | 0.6%+0.0pp | 0.3%-0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$475K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of -3.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $69M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $65M) · equity value $11.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 39 for ARKO Petroleum Corp indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score slightly higher than the long-term score. The stock scores high on growth, driven by revenue and EPS growth of 20% and 44.5%, respectively. However, it trades at a premium, with a high EV/EBITDA of 87.3, and exhibits weak profitability, with an ROE of only 3.6% and a low operating margin of 1.3%. The divergence between long-term and short-term scores may suggest conflicting trends in the company's fundamentals.