MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (41) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-26.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $96 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $90 (last mo, 5) (-5.8%).
Buy-rated share 72% → 74% over ~3 months (+2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.17 | $0.30 | +76.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.28 | $0.37 | +32.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.11 | $0.23 | +105.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +61.9% |
| May 2025 | $-0.01 | $0.01 | +258.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.21 | $0.23 | +209.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.34 | $-0.31 | +8.8% |
| Aug 2024 | $-0.48 | $-0.14 | +70.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $870M— | $1.3B+55.0% | $1.6B+17.7% | $2.3B+46.3% | $3.2B+38.8% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-1.64— | $-2.51n/m | $-3.34n/m | $-1.67n/m | $0.15n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$213M— | -$274Mn/m | -$109Mn/m | $291Mn/m | $602M+106.9% |
| Gross Margin | 62.9% | 57.3%-5.6pp | 45.0%-12.3pp | 63.6%+18.6pp | 67.5%+3.9pp |
| Operating Margin | -44.1% | -64.2%-20.1pp | -75.6%-11.4pp | -26.5%+49.1pp | -2.7%+23.8pp |
| Net Margin | -50.7% | -52.4%-1.8pp | -62.1%-9.6pp | -22.3%+39.8pp | 1.6%+23.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$8.2M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 41.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $261M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $602M) · equity value $25.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 41 for AFRM suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a high growth score of 78, which reflects the company's strong revenue and earnings growth, with EPS growth at 109.6%. However, this is offset by low scores in value, with a P/E of 66.0, and risk, due to a high beta of 3.6 and significant volatility. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, indicating some recent momentum, with a 3-month return of 19.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover.