MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Not enough return history to estimate factor exposures — 15 of 36 months required. This stock is too recently listed (or has too short a price history) for a reliable Fama-French regression.
Avg target $16 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $14 (last mo, 2) (-15.6%).
Buy-rated share 43% → 57% over ~3 months (+14pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.13 | $0.19 | +51.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.35 | $0.41 | +18.5% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.23 | $0.16 | -29.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.18 | $0.14 | -23.9% |
| May 2025 | $0.26 | $0.16 | -37.5% |
| Mar 2025 | $0.35 | $0.33 | -4.5% |
| Sep 2024 | — | $-0.14 | — |
| Jun 2024 | — | $0.14 | — |
Net insider -$236.4M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 30 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0— | $6.4Bn/m | $7.9B+22.5% | $5.0B-37.0% | $13.8B+176.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.14— | $0.94n/m | $1.04+10.6% | $0.61-41.3% | $0.86+41.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.6B— | -$916Mn/m | -$3.5Bn/m | -$11.6Bn/m | -$6.8Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | — | 65.1% | 78.7%+13.6pp | 66.4%-12.3pp | 49.3%-17.1pp |
| Operating Margin | — | 55.1% | 61.4%+6.3pp | 35.5%-26.0pp | 36.6%+1.1pp |
| Net Margin | — | 28.8% | 33.9%+5.1pp | 31.0%-2.9pp | 19.6%-11.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 47 for VG indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue growth of 176.9% and EPS growth of 52.5%, and also exhibits strong value metrics, trading at a P/E of 11.3. However, momentum is a concern, with a 12-month return of -32.2% and high volatility, while risk factors, such as a beta of 0.3 and 60-day volatility of 82.5%, also weigh on the score. The divergence between long-term and short-term scores, with the latter being 12 points lower, suggests recent performance has been a drag on the overall assessment.