MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.8B— | $5.4B+13.2% | $6.6B+21.3% | $7.9B+20.6% | $8.8B+11.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $10.39— | $13.40+28.9% | $22.03+64.4% | $25.62+16.3% | $32.08+25.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $808M— | $829M+2.6% | $1.2B+49.1% | $1.9B+52.1% | $1.8B-3.4% |
| Gross Margin | 52.4% | 57.1%+4.7pp | 58.3%+1.3pp | 58.8%+0.5pp | 58.0%-0.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 35.2% | 40.8%+5.6pp | 44.4%+3.6pp | 44.5%+0.1pp | 47.6%+3.1pp |
| Net Margin | 14.2% | 16.0%+1.8pp | 19.7%+3.8pp | 21.6%+1.9pp | 23.5%+1.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.6B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.8B) · equity value $63.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $1455 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $1415 (last mo, 3) (-2.8%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 52% over ~3 months (-10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $10.30 | $10.87 | +5.5% |
| May 2026 | $9.46 | $9.85 | +4.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $8.10 | $8.23 | +1.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $10.04 | $10.82 | +7.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $9.89 | $9.60 | -2.9% |
| May 2025 | $8.96 | $9.11 | +1.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $7.83 | $7.83 | +0.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $9.26 | $9.83 | +6.2% |
Net insider -$26.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 81 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 53 indicates a neutral outlook for TDG, with neither strong bullish nor bearish signals. The stock's score is driven down by its value category, which scores low due to a P/E of 34.8 and EV/EBITDA of 18.6, indicating it trades at a premium. However, TDG scores high on profitability, with a gross margin near 60% and operating margin of 46.2%, and also exhibits relatively low risk, with a beta of 0.9. Momentum is a weakness, with a 12-month return of -12.9%.