MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (53) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $133 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 35% → 32% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.36 | $1.43 | +5.1% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.15 | $1.15 | +0.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.06 | $1.06 | +0.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.15 | $1.12 | -2.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.29 | $1.37 | +6.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.58 | $1.46 | -7.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.70 | $1.66 | -2.4% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.82 | $1.85 | +1.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.5B— | $28.8B+22.5% | $35.1B+21.9% | $33.7B-4.2% | $28.4B-15.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.57— | $5.75+61.1% | $8.76+52.3% | $7.90-9.8% | $4.51-42.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $554M— | $1.6B+195.5% | $2.9B+78.9% | $2.9B-1.1% | $3.0B+4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 18.2% | 18.1%-0.1pp | 21.7%+3.6pp | 19.9%-1.8pp | 16.2%-3.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 9.8% | 12.8%+3.0pp | 16.9%+4.2pp | 14.5%-2.4pp | 10.4%-4.1pp |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | 10.4%+2.5pp | 13.1%+2.6pp | 12.4%-0.7pp | 8.4%-4.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$7.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $3.0B) · equity value $68.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 53 for PCAR suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 27.2, and exhibits strong momentum, having returned 30.9% over the past year. However, growth scores are weighed down by declines in revenue and EPS. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 56, indicating no significant divergence in the stock's near-term versus long-term prospects.