MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (44) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $344 (last qtr, 13 analysts) → $320 (last mo, 6) (-7.1%).
Buy-rated share 90% → 95% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $2.95 | $2.96 | +0.3% |
| Jul 2026 | $2.23 | $2.22 | -0.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.99 | $1.39 | +40.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.95 | $2.07 | +6.2% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.32 | $2.48 | +6.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.41 | $1.49 | +5.7% |
| May 2025 | $0.34 | $0.51 | +52.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.28 | $1.44 | +12.5% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B— | $9.8B+23.0% | $12.0B+22.7% | $12.3B+2.6% | $14.3B+16.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.45— | $0.42-90.6% | $-0.64-252.4% | $2.06n/m | $5.07+146.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $623M— | $89M-85.7% | $494M+455.8% | $973M+96.8% | $286M-70.6% |
| Gross Margin | 14.4% | 12.2%-2.2pp | 6.6%-5.6pp | 13.2%+6.7pp | 9.6%-3.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.2% | 1.3%-4.0pp | 1.3%-0.0pp | 3.5%+2.3pp | 4.6%+1.0pp |
| Net Margin | 4.1% | 0.3%-3.8pp | -0.4%-0.8pp | 1.3%+1.7pp | 2.8%+1.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 13.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $584M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $286M) · equity value $14.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$3.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 44 for MTZ indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and growth prospects being offset by its poor momentum and profitability. MTZ scores high on growth, driven by its 145% EPS growth and 16.2% revenue growth, and also trades at a reasonable valuation with a P/E of 29.1. However, the stock exhibits strong downward momentum, with a 12-month return of -18.8% and a 3-month return of -31.2%, and its profitability metrics, such as ROE of 14%, are relatively weak. The long-term and short-term scores diverge, with the long-term score being 9 points higher, suggesting some potential for recovery.