MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $93.5B— | $90.2B-3.6% | $87.7B-2.7% | $87.9B+0.3% | $94.7B+7.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.36— | $15.49+7.9% | $17.21+11.1% | $16.81-2.3% | $18.55+10.4% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B— | $2.6B-13.9% | $3.1B+18.7% | $3.0B-4.9% | $5.1B+71.6% |
| Gross Margin | 21.6% | 21.3%-0.3pp | 21.6%+0.4pp | 21.6%-0.0pp | 21.8%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 7.0% | 5.9%-1.1pp | 7.2%+1.3pp | 6.9%-0.3pp | 7.0%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 4.1% | 4.4%+0.3pp | 4.9%+0.5pp | 4.7%-0.3pp | 4.7%+0.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $3.7B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $5.1B) · equity value $75.0B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $321 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $369 (last mo, 3) (+14.9%).
Buy-rated share 72% → 70% over ~3 months (-2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $3.34 | $3.74 | +12.0% |
| Jun 2026 | $5.96 | $6.31 | +5.9% |
| Mar 2026 | $3.34 | $5.25 | +57.2% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.07 | $4.82 | +18.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $3.60 | $3.83 | +6.4% |
| Jun 2025 | $5.82 | $6.07 | +4.3% |
| Mar 2025 | $4.65 | $4.51 | -3.0% |
| Dec 2024 | $3.95 | $4.05 | +2.5% |
Net insider -$1.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 58 for FedEx indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong momentum and relatively attractive value metrics, including a P/E of 19.7. The stock's momentum score is particularly high at 71, reflecting its +57.8% return over the past year. In contrast, profitability scores are lower at 42, due to moderate return on equity of 12.6% and operating margin of 6.5%. The short-term score of 61 is slightly higher than the long-term score of 55, suggesting some near-term optimism.