MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Avg target $52 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $56 (last mo, 8) (+6.4%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 68% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.52 | $0.54 | +4.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.39 | $0.43 | +10.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.41 | $0.39 | -5.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.42 | $0.44 | +3.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.42 | $0.44 | +5.8% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.36 | $0.34 | -6.8% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.44 | $0.42 | -4.5% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.48 | $0.46 | -4.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.5B— | $14.9B+18.6% | $14.7B-1.3% | $14.5B-0.8% | $14.1B-3.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.68— | $1.95+16.1% | $1.82-6.7% | $1.79-1.6% | $1.54-14.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.3B— | $3.5B+5.4% | $3.3B-6.6% | $2.7B-16.5% | $1.7B-37.0% |
| Gross Margin | 42.2% | 38.5%-3.8pp | 38.2%-0.3pp | 37.9%-0.4pp | 33.2%-4.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 41.2% | 40.1%-1.1pp | 37.3%-2.8pp | 36.9%-0.4pp | 32.1%-4.8pp |
| Net Margin | 30.2% | 27.7%-2.5pp | 25.0%-2.7pp | 23.9%-1.2pp | 20.5%-3.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$11.9M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.6B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.7B) · equity value $93.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for CSX indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability and low risk, which scores high on ROE of 24.1% and a beta of 1.2. However, the stock's value and growth scores are pulled down by a P/E of 29.1 and negative revenue and EPS growth. Momentum exhibits strong momentum with a 12-month return of 40.8% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's fundamentals.