MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $188 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $188 (last mo, 13) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 64% → 73% over ~3 months (+9pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $1.75 | $1.80 | +2.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $1.53 | $1.61 | +5.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.23 | $1.35 | +9.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.12 | $1.23 | +9.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.30 | $1.40 | +7.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.16 | $1.29 | +11.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.05 | $1.17 | +11.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.10 | $1.21 | +10.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.1B— | $24.7B+6.9% | $17.6B-28.7% | $17.7B+0.7% | $16.2B-8.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.31— | $7.40+17.3% | $2.72-63.2% | $3.86+41.9% | $4.83+25.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $24M— | $1.5B+6231.6% | $648M-57.4% | $486M-24.9% | $895M+84.0% |
| Gross Margin | 7.0% | 7.6%+0.6pp | 6.5%-1.1pp | 7.4%+0.9pp | 8.4%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 4.7% | 5.1%+0.4pp | 2.9%-2.2pp | 3.8%+0.9pp | 4.9%+1.1pp |
| Net Margin | 3.7% | 3.8%+0.2pp | 1.8%-2.0pp | 2.6%+0.8pp | 3.6%+1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 1.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $676M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $895M) · equity value $14.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 47 for CHRW suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and risk profiles scoring relatively high, while growth and momentum categories drag the overall score down. The value category scores high at 56, driven by a P/E of 21.9, which is relatively reasonable. In contrast, the momentum category scores low at 35, reflecting a 12-month return of -4.8% and a recent 3-month decline of -16.2%. The long-term and short-term scores are moderately divergent, with the short-term score 5 points lower, potentially indicating some near-term headwinds.