MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.1B— | $24.7B+6.9% | $17.6B-28.7% | $17.7B+0.7% | $16.2B-8.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.31— | $7.40+17.3% | $2.72-63.2% | $3.86+41.9% | $4.83+25.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $24M— | $1.5B+6231.6% | $648M-57.4% | $486M-24.9% | $895M+84.0% |
| Gross Margin | 7.0% | 7.6%+0.6pp | 6.5%-1.1pp | 7.4%+0.9pp | 8.4%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 4.7% | 5.1%+0.4pp | 2.9%-2.2pp | 3.8%+0.9pp | 4.9%+1.1pp |
| Net Margin | 3.7% | 3.8%+0.2pp | 1.8%-2.0pp | 2.6%+0.8pp | 3.6%+1.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $195 (last qtr, 15 analysts) → $201 (last mo, 11) (+2.7%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 64% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.53 | $1.61 | +5.2% |
| Apr 2026 | $1.23 | $1.35 | +9.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.12 | $1.23 | +9.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.30 | $1.40 | +7.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.16 | $1.29 | +11.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.05 | $1.17 | +11.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.10 | $1.21 | +10.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.15 | $1.28 | +11.3% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 2.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $676M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $895M) · equity value $17.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 51 for CHRW indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's value and risk profiles scoring relatively high, while growth and profitability metrics are more subdued. The value score is driven by a P/E of 28.2 and EV/EBITDA of 19.5, which are somewhat elevated. In contrast, the growth score is weighed down by an -8.4% revenue growth rate, despite a strong EPS growth of 25.4%. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.