MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B— | $2.2B+5.1% | $2.5B+11.8% | $2.7B+8.3% | $3.2B+18.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.24— | $2.60-19.8% | $2.68+3.1% | $3.07+14.6% | $3.59+16.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $75M— | $46M-38.1% | $212M+357.9% | $255M+19.9% | $295M+15.9% |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | 24.7%-1.2pp | 24.9%+0.1pp | 24.2%-0.6pp | 22.9%-1.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 16.3% | 15.6%-0.7pp | 15.3%-0.3pp | 14.1%-1.3pp | 10.1%-4.0pp |
| Net Margin | 14.4% | 10.7%-3.7pp | 9.8%-0.8pp | 10.4%+0.6pp | 10.3%-0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Buy-rated share 63% → 75% over ~3 months (+13pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $1.04 | $1.07 | +2.9% |
| May 2026 | $0.92 | $1.12 | +21.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.89 | $1.08 | +21.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.85 | $1.00 | +17.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.79 | $1.02 | +29.1% |
| May 2025 | $0.77 | $0.91 | +19.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.80 | $0.92 | +15.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.78 | $0.83 | +6.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $254M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $295M) · equity value $15.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$2.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 6 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 49 for BWXT indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on growth, with revenue and EPS growth near 19% and 17%, respectively, but is held back by its value score, as it trades at a premium with a P/E of 44x. Momentum is also a weakness, with a 12-month return of -4.7% and a bearish moving average trend, while the risk score is a relative strength, with a beta below 1 and moderate volatility.