MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B— | $2.8B+0.9% | $1.8B-34.6% | $3.2B+75.1% | $5.5B+70.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.09— | $-0.52-659.1% | $0.98n/m | $4.53+362.2% | $9.75+115.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $360M— | $412M+14.3% | $1.1B+156.5% | $2.1B+98.1% | $3.9B+88.3% |
| Gross Margin | 64.6% | 55.4%-9.2pp | 80.6%+25.2pp | 83.9%+3.2pp | 87.9%+4.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.4% | -1.7%-7.1pp | 41.9%+43.6pp | 59.3%+17.3pp | 75.8%+16.5pp |
| Net Margin | 1.3% | -6.8%-8.1pp | 19.4%+26.2pp | 49.0%+29.6pp | 60.8%+11.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $685 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $775 (last mo, 1) (+13.1%).
Buy-rated share 83% → 88% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $3.44 | $3.56 | +3.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.95 | $3.24 | +9.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.38 | $2.45 | +2.9% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.96 | $2.26 | +15.3% |
| May 2025 | $1.44 | $1.67 | +16.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.12 | $1.73 | +54.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.92 | $1.25 | +35.9% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.75 | $0.89 | +18.7% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$135.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 99 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 51 for AppLovin Corporation suggests a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of strong growth and profitability metrics, as well as concerns around valuation and risk. The stock scores high on growth and profitability, with notable revenue and EPS growth of 70% and 110%, respectively, and an impressive ROE near 222%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 40.7, and exhibits high volatility, with a beta of 2.5, which weighs on its overall score, and its short-term score is slightly lower than its long-term score.