MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (59) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $406 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $450 (last mo, 1) (+10.9%).
Buy-rated share 27% → 38% over ~3 months (+12pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $3.47 | $3.90 | +12.4% |
| Jan 2026 | $3.64 | $4.45 | +22.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.97 | $4.39 | +10.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $3.51 | $4.16 | +18.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $3.10 | $3.42 | +10.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $3.36 | $3.84 | +14.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $3.45 | $3.67 | +6.4% |
| Jul 2024 | $2.97 | $3.36 | +13.1% |
Net insider -$10.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 33 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B— | $2.7B+3.6% | $2.8B+4.4% | $2.8B+0.1% | $3.1B+9.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.34— | $5.27-1.3% | $6.55+24.3% | $9.55+45.8% | $11.80+23.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $615M— | $409M-33.4% | $599M+46.5% | $762M+27.2% | $906M+18.9% |
| Gross Margin | 81.1% | 80.0%-1.1pp | 78.9%-1.1pp | 80.2%+1.3pp | 81.4%+1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 15.1% | 15.0%-0.2pp | 16.8%+1.8pp | 23.4%+6.6pp | 24.8%+1.4pp |
| Net Margin | 12.7% | 12.0%-0.8pp | 14.0%+2.1pp | 20.1%+6.1pp | 22.4%+2.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 59 for FFIV indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong momentum and low risk factors, with the stock exhibiting a 12-month return of 34.0% and a beta of 1.0. The value category scores lower due to a P/E of 32.0 and P/B of 6.1, indicating the stock trades at a premium. Profitability scores are also a positive, with an ROE near 20% and gross margin of 81.9%, while growth scores are more subdued, with revenue growth at 9.7%. The short-term and long-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 2-point difference.