MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B— | $9.1B+11.5% | $10.0B+9.5% | $10.8B+8.4% | $11.7B+8.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.17— | $7.93+10.6% | $9.93+25.2% | $9.23-7.0% | $12.76+38.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B— | $1.6B-1.7% | $1.8B+14.3% | $2.1B+19.2% | $2.6B+20.5% |
| Gross Margin | 49.4% | 46.4%-3.0pp | 49.8%+3.4pp | 51.0%+1.1pp | 50.2%-0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.4% | 18.2%-2.2pp | 23.0%+4.8pp | 24.8%+1.9pp | 25.1%+0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 15.2% | 15.0%-0.3pp | 17.1%+2.2pp | 14.6%-2.5pp | 18.4%+3.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$824K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 4 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $518 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $518 (last mo, 4) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 86% → 86% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $3.85 | $4.41 | +14.5% |
| May 2026 | $3.24 | $3.37 | +4.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $4.35 | $4.59 | +5.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.85 | $4.06 | +5.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $3.35 | $3.57 | +6.6% |
| May 2025 | $3.01 | $3.18 | +5.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $3.89 | $4.04 | +3.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $3.38 | $3.74 | +10.7% |
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 8.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.6B) · equity value $77.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for MSI indicates a moderately favorable outlook, driven by strong profitability and low risk scores. The stock scores high on profitability, with an ROE near 86%, and exhibits strong momentum, having risen 17% over the past three months. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 36.4, which weighs on its value score. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some recent positive trends.