MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-19.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5B— | $18.0B+9.2% | $19.2B+6.6% | $20.6B+7.1% | $21.9B+6.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $7.00— | $8.21+17.3% | $9.10+10.8% | $9.98+9.7% | $10.95+9.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B— | $3.6B+42.8% | $3.6B-1.1% | $4.8B+32.7% | $5.2B+9.9% |
| Gross Margin | 46.9% | 48.9%+2.0pp | 49.9%+1.1pp | 50.8%+0.9pp | 48.2%-2.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 23.1% | 25.0%+2.0pp | 25.7%+0.7pp | 26.3%+0.6pp | 18.6%-7.7pp |
| Net Margin | 17.9% | 18.9%+1.1pp | 19.5%+0.6pp | 19.8%+0.3pp | 20.1%+0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $276 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $283 (last mo, 7) (+2.3%).
Buy-rated share 25% → 22% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $2.59 | $2.64 | +1.9% |
| Apr 2026 | $3.30 | $3.37 | +2.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.57 | $2.62 | +1.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.44 | $2.49 | +2.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.23 | $2.26 | +1.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $2.97 | $3.06 | +3.0% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.30 | $2.35 | +2.2% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.21 | $2.33 | +5.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$410K over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 7 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $4.5B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $5.2B) · equity value $108.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 58 for ADP indicates a moderately attractive stock, driven by its strong momentum and low risk profile, with a momentum score of 61 and a risk score of 74. The stock's value score is somewhat tempered by its premium valuation, with a P/E of 24.8 and P/B of 18.0. ADP's profitability also scores high, with an ROE near 70%, while its growth score is more modest, at 43, reflecting revenue growth of 6.7%. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, at 60 versus 56.