MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (60) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.9B— | $12.6B+16.1% | $12.6B-0.5% | $15.2B+21.3% | $23.1B+51.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.27— | $1.53+20.5% | $1.56+2.0% | $1.92+23.1% | $3.34+74.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B— | $1.8B+51.8% | $2.2B+20.4% | $2.1B-0.3% | $4.4B+103.7% |
| Gross Margin | 31.3% | 31.9%+0.6pp | 32.5%+0.6pp | 33.8%+1.2pp | 36.9%+3.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.0% | 20.7%+0.7pp | 20.7%+0.0pp | 21.6%+0.9pp | 25.9%+4.3pp |
| Net Margin | 14.6% | 15.1%+0.4pp | 15.4%+0.3pp | 15.9%+0.6pp | 18.5%+2.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $195 avg across 4 analysts.
Buy-rated share 80% → 88% over ~3 months (+8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.18 | $1.35 | +14.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.94 | $1.06 | +12.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.79 | $0.93 | +17.3% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.67 | $0.81 | +21.4% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.52 | $0.63 | +20.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.50 | $0.55 | +10.0% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.45 | $0.50 | +11.1% |
Net insider -$215.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 11 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 21.6%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $4.4B) · equity value $207.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 60 indicates APH's overall strength is moderate, driven upwards by high scores in Growth and Momentum, reflecting its strong revenue and earnings growth, as well as a 50.9% return over the past year. However, the stock's Value score is pulled down by a P/E of 40.1 and P/B of 13.4, indicating it trades at a premium. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting recent momentum may be a key factor in its current outlook, with the Risk score also supporting its relatively stable position.