MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $576 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $567 (last mo, 13) (-1.6%).
Buy-rated share 85% → 81% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $4.11 | $4.64 | +12.9% |
| Aug 2026 | $3.31 | $3.56 | +7.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.39 | $2.72 | +13.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.93 | $2.13 | +10.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.59 | $1.78 | +11.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.48 | $1.66 | +12.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.12 | $1.36 | +21.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.35 | $1.77 | +31.1% |
Net insider -$5.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 10 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.8B— | $6.3B-66.7% | $6.3B+1.0% | $9.5B+50.7% | $12.9B+35.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.75— | $-5.37-213.1% | $-2.61n/m | $5.12n/m | $24.28+374.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $773M— | -$1.2B-257.2% | -$781Mn/m | $1.3Bn/m | $3.5B+173.4% |
| Gross Margin | 32.3% | 22.2%-10.1pp | 28.1%+5.8pp | 38.8%+10.7pp | 48.9%+10.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.7% | -8.8%-21.5pp | -6.4%+2.4pp | 24.5%+30.9pp | 34.5%+10.0pp |
| Net Margin | 8.2% | -26.9%-35.1pp | -12.6%+14.3pp | 19.8%+32.5pp | 72.9%+53.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 35.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.3B (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $3.5B) · equity value $136.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 54 for Western Digital Corporation indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and profitability scores of 71, reflecting its significant revenue and EPS growth of 35.7% and 407.0%, respectively, as well as a high ROE of 113.8%. However, this is offset by a relatively low value score of 51, due to its EV/EBITDA of 21.7, and a low risk score of 30, driven by its high beta of 2.2 and volatility of 66.1%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference.