MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$111.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 14 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $365.8B— | $394.3B+7.8% | $383.3B-2.8% | $391.0B+2.0% | $416.2B+6.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.61— | $6.11+8.9% | $6.13+0.3% | $6.08-0.8% | $7.46+22.7% |
| Free Cash Flow | $93.0B— | $111.4B+19.9% | $99.6B-10.6% | $108.8B+9.3% | $98.8B-9.2% |
| Gross Margin | 41.8% | 43.3%+1.5pp | 44.1%+0.8pp | 46.2%+2.1pp | 46.9%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 29.8% | 30.3%+0.5pp | 29.8%-0.5pp | 31.5%+1.7pp | 32.0%+0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 25.9% | 25.3%-0.6pp | 25.3%-0.0pp | 24.0%-1.3pp | 26.9%+2.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $327 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $338 (last mo, 4) (+3.3%).
Buy-rated share 63% → 61% over ~3 months (-2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.95 | $2.01 | +3.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.67 | $2.85 | +6.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.73 | $1.85 | +6.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $1.44 | $1.57 | +9.0% |
| May 2025 | $1.63 | $1.65 | +1.2% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.36 | $2.40 | +1.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.60 | $1.64 | +2.5% |
| Aug 2024 | $1.34 | $1.40 | +4.5% |
The QScore of 58 indicates a neutral outlook for AAPL, driven by strong profitability scores, with a notable ROE of 146.7%, and low risk, with a beta of 1.1. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 34.2, contributing to a lower value score. Momentum is moderately positive, with a 12-month return of 40.8%, while growth scores are hindered by a decline in free cash flow growth. The long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.