MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (47) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net insider -$327.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 41 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $51 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $51 (last mo, 3) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 100% → 100% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +1.3% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.30 | $0.32 | +5.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.41 | $0.44 | +6.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.39 | $0.41 | +5.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.37 | $0.39 | +5.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.23 | $0.25 | +8.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.52 | $0.51 | -1.9% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.51 | $0.51 | +0.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.9B— | $6.6B+66.4% | $6.9B+5.6% | $7.0B+1.3% | $7.9B+12.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.44— | $0.07n/m | $-0.46-732.7% | $-0.56n/m | $-0.69n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $127M— | $191M+50.4% | $428M+124.1% | $536M+25.2% | $663M+23.7% |
| Gross Margin | 23.8% | 26.1%+2.3pp | 28.0%+1.9pp | 31.0%+3.0pp | 31.4%+0.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 3.5% | 2.5%-1.0pp | 5.2%+2.7pp | 6.9%+1.7pp | 7.0%+0.1pp |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 1.1%-0.1pp | 2.2%+1.1pp | 3.6%+1.4pp | 3.8%+0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 10.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $542M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $663M) · equity value $18.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 47 for APG suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's strengths and weaknesses balancing out. APG scores high on momentum, driven by its 22% return over the past year, but is held back by its relatively low profitability, with an ROE of 10.1% and operating margin of 6.8%. The stock trades at a premium, as evidenced by its EV/EBITDA of 24.3 and P/B of 5.3, which contributes to its mediocre value score. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 3-point difference.