MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-10-25.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $65 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $63 (last mo, 3) (-2.7%).
Buy-rated share 38% → 33% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.90 | $0.93 | +3.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.96 | $1.03 | +7.6% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.94 | $0.85 | -9.8% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.84 | $0.90 | +7.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.91 | $0.94 | +3.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.97 | $1.07 | +10.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.91 | $0.95 | +4.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.90 | $0.85 | -5.6% |
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B— | $3.8B+6.1% | $3.9B+2.6% | $3.8B-0.9% | $3.8B+0.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.02— | $1.51-50.0% | $3.69+144.4% | $3.63-1.6% | $3.86+6.3% |
| Free Cash Flow | $566M— | $321M-43.3% | $598M+86.1% | $474M-20.7% | $546M+15.2% |
| Gross Margin | 37.0% | 35.4%-1.6pp | 38.5%+3.1pp | 38.1%-0.4pp | 38.8%+0.7pp |
| Operating Margin | 17.2% | 17.5%+0.3pp | 19.7%+2.1pp | 18.8%-0.9pp | 19.0%+0.2pp |
| Net Margin | 13.8% | 6.3%-7.5pp | 14.4%+8.2pp | 14.0%-0.5pp | 14.3%+0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 1.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $539M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $546M) · equity value $8.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
AOS's QScore of 57 indicates a neutral outlook, driven by its strong profitability and reasonable valuation, with a P/E of 17.7 and ROE near 27%. The stock's growth score is somewhat lower, reflecting modest revenue growth of 0.3% and slower EPS growth. Momentum is also a mixed factor, with a recent 3.9% gain over the past three months but a negative 12-month return of -3.8%, and the long-term and short-term scores are closely aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.