MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (38) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.7B— | $12.2B-10.9% | $12.0B-1.8% | $11.9B-1.3% | $12.5B+5.1% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-1.26— | $-12.56n/m | $-6.47n/m | $-4.00n/m | $-2.42n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $130M— | -$1.1B-970.8% | -$2Mn/m | $83Mn/m | $464M+459.0% |
| Gross Margin | 28.4% | 28.0%-0.5pp | 30.6%+2.6pp | 30.2%-0.4pp | 30.2%+0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | -0.7% | -11.3%-10.6pp | -6.8%+4.6pp | -3.9%+2.9pp | 0.1%+4.0pp |
| Net Margin | -1.0% | -10.9%-9.9pp | -6.1%+4.7pp | -4.2%+2.0pp | -2.5%+1.6pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $94 (last qtr, 9 analysts) → $99 (last mo, 1) (+5.4%).
Buy-rated share 55% → 61% over ~3 months (+7pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.64 | $0.85 | +32.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.46 | $0.70 | +52.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.36 | $0.87 | +141.7% |
| May 2025 | $-0.18 | $0.10 | +155.6% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.05 | $-0.25 | -600.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.15 | $0.22 | +46.7% |
| Aug 2024 | $0.50 | $0.47 | -6.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$55.7M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 56 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
The QScore of 38 for Wayfair indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score of 45 diverging from its long-term score of 31. Wayfair scores high on growth and momentum, driven by its 39.5% EPS growth and 88.5% return over the past year. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of -40.5 and EV/EBITDA of 118.0, contributing to its low value score, while its risk profile is elevated due to a beta of 3.0 and high volatility.