MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.6B— | $7.3B+31.8% | $7.8B+6.4% | $7.4B-4.7% | $7.9B+6.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $5.02— | $4.31-14.1% | $6.98+61.9% | $6.85-1.9% | $8.12+18.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $561M— | $536M-4.5% | $664M+24.0% | $806M+21.4% | $1.1B+40.8% |
| Gross Margin | 24.7% | 21.3%-3.4pp | 25.0%+3.7pp | 27.0%+1.9pp | 27.3%+0.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 18.2% | 13.0%-5.2pp | 18.3%+5.3pp | 18.4%+0.1pp | 20.1%+1.7pp |
| Net Margin | 12.1% | 7.9%-4.2pp | 12.0%+4.1pp | 12.3%+0.3pp | 13.6%+1.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $318 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $283 (last mo, 1) (-11.0%).
Buy-rated share 68% → 65% over ~3 months (-3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.10 | $1.35 | +22.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.11 | $1.70 | -19.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.73 | $2.84 | +4.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.53 | $2.45 | -3.2% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.76 | $1.00 | +30.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.79 | $2.17 | +21.2% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.30 | $2.22 | -3.5% |
| Aug 2024 | $2.48 | $2.35 | -5.2% |
Net insider -$992K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 56 for VMC indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a strong risk profile and decent momentum, with the stock exhibiting a 22.3% return over the past year and a relatively low beta of 1.1. However, the value category scores low due to the stock trading at a premium, with a P/E of 36.8 and P/B of 4.9. The growth category also scores moderately, with revenue growth of 6.9% and EPS growth of 18.3%, while profitability is average, with an ROE of 13.1%. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 5-point difference.