MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.7B— | $17.5B+11.5% | $17.2B-1.3% | $16.9B-1.8% | $17.4B+2.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.37— | $1.58-33.3% | $1.03-34.8% | $1.30+26.2% | $1.60+23.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B— | $267M-87.6% | $1.2B+339.7% | $1.5B+31.9% | $2.8B+81.8% |
| Gross Margin | 41.1% | 40.2%-0.9pp | 42.4%+2.2pp | 43.6%+1.2pp | 43.6%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 8.4% | 11.0%+2.6pp | 12.2%+1.2pp | 12.4%+0.1pp | 15.1%+2.7pp |
| Net Margin | 11.2% | 6.6%-4.7pp | 4.3%-2.3pp | 5.4%+1.1pp | 6.3%+0.9pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $91 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $89 (last mo, 2) (-2.6%).
Buy-rated share 65% → 70% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.17 | $1.50 | +28.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.22 | $0.22 | -1.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.51 | $-0.23 | +54.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.89 | $2.20 | +16.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.87 | $1.13 | +29.3% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +2.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $-0.30 | $-0.49 | -61.7% |
| Jul 2024 | $1.73 | $1.83 | +5.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$636K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 54 for CTVA suggests a neutral outlook, with the stock's short-term score slightly outpacing its long-term score. CTVA scores high on momentum, driven by its 12-month return of 12.8% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, the stock trades at a premium, with a P/E of 48.3, which weighs on its value score, while its profitability score is also subdued due to a relatively low ROE of 4.7%. The stock's risk profile is a positive factor, with a beta of 0.6 indicating lower volatility.