MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (58) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.6B— | $10.2B+18.3% | $11.2B+9.8% | $11.3B+0.8% | $12.4B+9.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $17.98— | $24.01+33.5% | $26.03+8.4% | $25.34-2.7% | $25.64+1.2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $887M— | $1.2B+31.9% | $1.0B-11.0% | $964M-7.4% | $1.1B+10.8% |
| Gross Margin | 39.0% | 39.6%+0.6pp | 39.1%-0.5pp | 38.8%-0.3pp | 39.1%+0.3pp |
| Operating Margin | 14.5% | 16.2%+1.7pp | 15.0%-1.1pp | 14.0%-1.1pp | 12.5%-1.5pp |
| Net Margin | 11.4% | 12.2%+0.7pp | 11.5%-0.7pp | 10.6%-0.9pp | 9.3%-1.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 5.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $1.0B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $1.1B) · equity value $27.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $653 avg across 10 analysts.
Buy-rated share 70% → 66% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $6.22 | $6.55 | +5.3% |
| Jun 2026 | $6.89 | $7.74 | +12.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $8.10 | $8.01 | -1.1% |
| Dec 2025 | $4.61 | $5.14 | +11.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $5.10 | $5.78 | +13.3% |
| May 2025 | $5.81 | $6.70 | +15.3% |
| Mar 2025 | $7.13 | $8.46 | +18.7% |
| Dec 2024 | $4.53 | $5.14 | +13.5% |
Net insider -$1.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 58 for Ulta Beauty indicates a moderately attractive stock, with the short-term score of 62 diverging from the long-term score of 53. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 26.5% return over the past year and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. In contrast, the value category scores lower due to a P/E of 23.2 and P/B of 10.5, indicating the stock trades at a premium. The company exhibits strong profitability, with an ROE near 45%.