MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (57) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net insider -$6.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 10 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B— | $5.9B-8.8% | $5.0B-14.6% | $4.1B-17.3% | $4.7B+13.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.10— | $1.47-52.6% | $-10.73-829.9% | $2.75n/m | $-2.30-183.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $685M— | $199M-71.0% | $516M+159.8% | $760M+47.2% | $830M+9.2% |
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | 58.9%-1.4pp | 57.3%-1.6pp | 64.6%+7.3pp | 63.8%-0.8pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.9% | 7.0%-4.9pp | -30.8%-37.7pp | 16.7%+47.4pp | 0.2%-16.4pp |
| Net Margin | 6.7% | 3.5%-3.2pp | -29.8%-33.2pp | 9.3%+39.1pp | -6.9%-16.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $113 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $121 (last mo, 3) (+6.8%).
Buy-rated share 81% → 87% over ~3 months (+5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $1.86 | $2.90 | +55.9% |
| Jul 2026 | $1.16 | $1.28 | +10.3% |
| May 2026 | $1.20 | $1.47 | +22.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.99 | $1.51 | +52.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.66 | $1.68 | +1.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.78 | $1.30 | +66.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.67 | $1.04 | +55.2% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.38 | $0.46 | +21.1% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $702M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $830M) · equity value $16.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 57 for HAS indicates a moderately positive outlook, driven by strong momentum and profitability scores of 76 and 75, respectively. The stock exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 52.6% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, the growth score is pulled down by a significant decline in EPS growth, and the value score is weighed down by a P/E of 17.6 and P/B of 17.8, indicating the stock trades at a premium. The short-term score is notably higher than the long-term score, at 61 versus 54.