MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 3.1%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $727M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $651M) · equity value $13.9B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$238K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 1 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.6B— | $27.8B+8.8% | $30.9B+11.2% | $31.9B+3.1% | $31.8B-0.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $14.89— | $18.55+24.6% | $15.50-16.4% | $14.49-6.5% | $14.13-2.5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B— | $1.2B+12.6% | $718M-38.9% | $811M+12.9% | $651M-19.8% |
| Gross Margin | 17.4% | 17.4%+0.0pp | 16.6%-0.7pp | 16.4%-0.3pp | 16.4%+0.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 5.3% | 5.3%+0.0pp | 4.7%-0.7pp | 4.3%-0.4pp | 4.0%-0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 4.6% | 5.0%+0.3pp | 3.6%-1.4pp | 3.0%-0.5pp | 2.9%-0.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $214 avg across 4 analysts.
Buy-rated share 43% → 20% over ~3 months (-23pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $3.37 | $3.43 | +1.8% |
| Jul 2026 | $3.42 | $3.62 | +5.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.91 | $3.05 | +4.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $3.19 | $2.91 | -8.8% |
| Oct 2025 | $3.48 | $3.23 | -7.2% |
| Jul 2025 | — | $3.78 | — |
| Apr 2025 | $3.28 | $3.39 | +3.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $3.37 | $3.54 | +5.0% |
The QScore of 56 for Penske Automotive Group indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a relatively strong value profile, with a P/E of 15.5 and P/B of 2.3, and favorable momentum, exhibiting a 12-month return of 31.9%. However, the score is held back by weaker growth and profitability metrics, including negative revenue and EPS growth. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference, suggesting a consistent view across different time horizons.