MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $290 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $293 (last mo, 7) (+0.9%).
Buy-rated share 93% → 97% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.33 | $-0.18 | -155.0% |
| May 2026 | $0.56 | $0.80 | +42.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.83 | $1.23 | +47.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.94 | $1.46 | +55.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $0.28 | $0.61 | +115.9% |
| May 2025 | $1.10 | $1.09 | -0.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.64 | $0.72 | +12.5% |
| Nov 2024 | $0.42 | $0.66 | +59.0% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B— | $5.3B+52.6% | $5.3B-0.0% | $5.6B+5.3% | $6.7B+18.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.58— | $-7.03-296.4% | $-22.01n/m | $-25.58n/m | $-1.62n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $99M— | -$203M-304.3% | -$158Mn/m | -$215Mn/m | $462Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 56.2% | 42.7%-13.5pp | 41.9%-0.8pp | 54.4%+12.5pp | 57.2%+2.9pp |
| Operating Margin | 13.5% | -21.5%-35.0pp | -21.4%+0.1pp | -13.1%+8.3pp | -1.6%+11.5pp |
| Net Margin | 11.9% | -21.0%-32.9pp | -70.0%-49.0pp | -79.5%-9.5pp | -4.5%+75.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 6.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $30M (avg FY2024–FY2026; latest year $462M) · equity value $45.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$160.6M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 70 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 56 for TTWO indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on growth, with notable revenue and EPS growth, but is held back by low value and profitability scores due to its high P/E and negative ROE. The short-term score is slightly higher than the long-term score, suggesting some recent momentum, with a 6.0% return over the past three months and a bullish moving average trend. TTWO trades at a premium, with a P/E of -139.3 and EV/EBITDA of 47.3.