MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (33) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$60.0M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 63 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $53.8B— | $81.5B+51.4% | $96.8B+18.8% | $97.7B+0.9% | $94.8B-2.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.63— | $3.62+122.1% | $4.31+19.1% | $2.04-52.7% | $1.08-47.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.5B— | $7.6B+116.8% | $4.4B-42.3% | $3.6B-17.8% | $6.2B+73.7% |
| Gross Margin | 25.3% | 25.6%+0.3pp | 18.2%-7.3pp | 17.9%-0.4pp | 18.0%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.1% | 16.8%+4.6pp | 9.2%-7.6pp | 7.2%-1.9pp | 4.6%-2.7pp |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 15.4%+5.2pp | 15.5%+0.1pp | 7.3%-8.2pp | 4.0%-3.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $429 (last qtr, 6 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 48% → 48% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.35 | $0.41 | +15.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.45 | $0.50 | +9.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.50 | -10.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.40 | $0.40 | +0.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.41 | $0.27 | -34.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.77 | $0.73 | -5.7% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.58 | $0.72 | +24.1% |
| Jul 2024 | $0.62 | $0.52 | -16.1% |
The QScore of 33 for TSLA indicates a relatively weak overall assessment, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with a P/E of 315.5 and ROE of 4.8% being notable concerns. The stock's Growth and Momentum scores are somewhat higher, driven by 73.7% free cash flow growth and a 15.9% 12-month return, although recent momentum has slowed. The long-term and short-term scores are moderately aligned, with a slight divergence of 6 points, suggesting some near-term potential but overall caution. TSLA trades at a significant premium, reflecting its volatile and speculative nature.