MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (34) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Avg target $444 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $404 (last mo, 9) (-9.0%).
Buy-rated share 49% → 43% over ~3 months (-6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.46 | $0.48 | +5.5% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.53 | $0.33 | -38.1% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.35 | $0.41 | +15.9% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.45 | $0.50 | +9.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.56 | $0.50 | -10.4% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.40 | $0.40 | +0.7% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.41 | $0.27 | -34.7% |
| Jan 2025 | $0.77 | $0.73 | -5.7% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $53.8B— | $81.5B+51.4% | $96.8B+18.8% | $97.7B+0.9% | $94.8B-2.9% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.63— | $3.62+122.1% | $4.31+19.1% | $2.04-52.7% | $1.08-47.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.5B— | $7.6B+116.8% | $4.4B-42.3% | $3.6B-17.8% | $6.2B+73.7% |
| Gross Margin | 25.3% | 25.6%+0.3pp | 18.2%-7.3pp | 17.9%-0.4pp | 18.0%+0.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.1% | 16.8%+4.6pp | 9.2%-7.6pp | 7.2%-1.9pp | 4.6%-2.7pp |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 15.4%+5.2pp | 15.5%+0.1pp | 7.3%-8.2pp | 4.0%-3.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$3.3M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 3 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 23.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $4.7B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $6.2B) · equity value $1.56T · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 34 indicates a relatively weak assessment of TSLA's overall attractiveness, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with a P/E of 399x and ROE near 4% being notable concerns. The stock's Growth and Momentum scores are somewhat higher, with free cash flow growth of 73.7% and a recent 3-month return of 22.6% being positives, although the overall Momentum score is still tempered by a -14.4% return over the past year. The divergence between the long-term score of 28 and short-term score of 40 suggests some near-term strengths, but overall the stock trades at a premium and exhibits mixed fundamentals.