MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (48) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Avg target $35 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $35 (last mo, 8) (+0.0%).
Buy-rated share 52% → 50% over ~3 months (-2pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.41 | $0.43 | +5.3% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.82 | $0.81 | -1.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.34 | $0.31 | -9.2% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.46 | $0.43 | -7.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.48 | $0.49 | +1.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.80 | $0.81 | +1.0% |
| Apr 2025 | $0.37 | $0.34 | -7.6% |
| Jan 2025 | $2.28 | $0.44 | -80.7% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B— | $14.2B+11.6% | $14.6B+2.5% | $14.9B+2.2% | $15.5B+4.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $1.72— | $1.94+12.8% | $2.02+3.9% | $2.04+1.1% | $2.06+1.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $510M— | $584M+14.4% | $580M-0.6% | $637M+9.8% | $740M+16.3% |
| Gross Margin | 35.2% | 35.0%-0.2pp | 35.9%+0.9pp | 36.3%+0.3pp | 33.2%-3.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 10.3% | 10.1%-0.2pp | 10.2%+0.1pp | 9.9%-0.3pp | 9.5%-0.4pp |
| Net Margin | 7.8% | 7.7%-0.2pp | 7.6%-0.1pp | 7.4%-0.2pp | 7.1%-0.3pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider $652K over 180 days (4 open-market buys, 0 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $652M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $740M) · equity value $17.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 48 for Tractor Supply Company suggests a neutral outlook, with the long-term and short-term scores diverging slightly. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 18.2 and EV/EBITDA of 12.8, and exhibits relatively low risk, with a beta of 0.5. However, it is dragged down by weaker momentum, with a 12-month return of -37.4%, and moderate growth and profitability, with revenue growth of 4.3% and ROE near 38%.