MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-12.
Net insider -$5.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 8 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.4B— | $22.3B+20.9% | $18.8B-15.6% | $17.5B-6.7% | $18.2B+3.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $15.56— | $20.92+34.4% | $14.64-30.0% | $9.84-32.8% | $7.99-18.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B— | $3.6B+196.5% | $1.9B-47.6% | -$24M-101.3% | $502Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 29.1% | 27.5%-1.6pp | 21.5%-6.0pp | 16.0%-5.5pp | 13.0%-3.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 23.4% | 22.9%-0.5pp | 16.8%-6.1pp | 11.1%-5.7pp | 8.1%-3.0pp |
| Net Margin | 17.5% | 17.4%-0.1pp | 13.0%-4.3pp | 8.8%-4.3pp | 6.5%-2.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 7.3%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $780M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $502M) · equity value $35.4B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Avg target $276 (last qtr, 7 analysts) → $280 (last mo, 5) (+1.4%).
Buy-rated share 69% → 64% over ~3 months (-5pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $5.48 | $5.26 | -4.0% |
| Jul 2026 | $3.63 | $3.69 | +1.7% |
| Apr 2026 | $2.84 | $2.78 | -2.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.70 | $1.82 | +7.1% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.63 | $2.74 | +4.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.24 | $2.01 | -10.3% |
| Apr 2025 | $1.38 | $1.44 | +4.3% |
| Jan 2025 | $1.69 | $1.36 | -19.5% |
The QScore of 54 for Steel Dynamics indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 53.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend. However, its growth score is held back by an -18.9% decline in EPS growth, despite a significant increase in free cash flow growth. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with the short-term score slightly higher at 56.